TSP Investment Summary – Returns and Allocations

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Most days I’ll update this page to include the latest returns for the TSPi allocations (TSPi Basic, TSPi Plus and TSPi Apex), TSP funds and other investment strategies.  Information includes returns from: Yesterday (the last TSP business day); This Week which will also show “Last Week” on Monday; This Month; Last 30 Days; Last 60 Days and Since 1 Nov 2015 (when TSPi started).  Returns from the TSP G Fund, F Fund, C Fund, S Fund and I Fund are shown. Returns from the 50CS, CSI, C20, CF, SF, and PF allocation strategies are shown. Allocations are also shown.

Bookmark this page to have quick access to the information.

TSPinvestor Basic, Plus and Apex .. what are they?

The TSPinvestor has three investment allocation strategies – called the Basic, Plus, and the Apex. These are formulas that recommend monthly Thrift Savings Plan allocations for the individual G, F, C, S and I funds.

A simulation of implementing the Basic, Plus and Apex was done and the 10-year annual return (2005-2014) for the Basic was 12%, the Plus was 19%, and the Apex was 23% (see the comparative annual returns here).

The following link is to a third party site that I use to accurately capture the allocation returns. I have been using this since Dec 2015. So while the data thus far is limited, it is a confirmed and accurate accounting of the performance of these funds. I do recommend checking this out.

The development of the model and formulas relied upon a human decision. But these models are not tweaked or adjusted, nor is there any human decision regarding the monthly allocations.

DEVELOPMENT

The Basic has a model/formula that is solely based upon historical returns of the TSP G, F, C, S and I Funds. The Plus model/formula is based upon historical returns of the individual TSP funds, as the Basic does, but also includes several leading economic indicators.

The Basic, Plus and Apex models, and formulas were derived using mathematical and statistical techniques. A full compliment of factors/variables were considered and selected based upon their effect on matching the historical data. The historical data used was from January 2003 through the present.

The Basic uses only the TSP fund historical data to feed the model/formula. The Plus additionally uses three leading economic indicators. And the Apex uses the Plus model – but then determines if it’s optimal to invest 100% in the top allocation recommendation for that month.

Is It Right For You?

The decision to allocate your TSP account is a serious one. The strategy to allocate (buy) and then don’t change (hold) comes easy, and often is very predictable over the long run. For example, an aggressive strategy in the mid 2000’s to invest 50% in the C Fund and 50% in the S Fund over the course of 12 years yielded about 8-9% per year, which is a fairly good return on your investment. However, there is no doubt that the monthly allocation strategy will yield a higher return. And the risk is less than the aggressive buy and hold strategies, such as the example above.

IMPLEMENTATION

The first step in implementing the TSPinvestor strategy is to choose which fund is best – the Basic, Plus or the Apex. At first glance the 19% return of the Plus, or the 23% of the Apex seem obvious choices. However the 12% return of the Basic may be your choice. Look at some historical data to help decide. Either way, pick one and stick to it for the long term.

The implementation of the allocations is done on a particular day of each month. The Basic is allocated on the last business day prior to the 2nd of the month; The Plus and Apex are allocated on the last business day prior to the 10th of the month. The recommended percentage for each fund should be changed within the TSP website for the fund distribution (via interfund transfers) and also future contributions.

TSPinvestor Plus and Apex Allocations for February 2018

The TSPinvestor Plus and Apex allocations for February 2018 are:

Plus: 20% G Fund, 24% F Fund, 26% C Fund, 30% S Fund, 0% I Fund

Apex: Same as Plus.

These should be allocated prior to February 9, 2018 at noon EST.

To implement this allocation, login to your account and change the fund allocations (via interfund transfer) and your new contributions to the recommended percentage.  These take effect the same business day if done before noon Eastern Time, otherwise it will be the next day.

The TSPinvestor Apex is a nominal 23% annual return strategy, and the Plus is a nominal 19% annual return.

Last month’s Plus and Apex performance – each had losses of 1.4%, but avoided larger losses that the stock funds suffered.

Here is a comparison of the various allocations and funds performance for January 2018:

  1. G Fund = 0.2%
  2. TSPinvestor Apex = (1.4)%
  3. TSPinvestor Plus = (1.4)%
  4. F Fund = (1.6)%
  5. 20% in each fund = (3.7)%
  6. I Fund = (5.0)%
  7. 1/3 each in C, S & I = (5.7)%
  8. C Fund = (6.0)%
  9. 50% C & S = (6.0)%
  10. S Fund = (6.1)%

() – denotes negative return (or a loss)

NOTE: These are like comparisons based upon allocations on the 9th of the month.

Cumulative Returns since Nov 2015*:

  1. C Fund = 28.7%
  2. 50% in C & S = 27.8%
  3. S Fund = 26.6%
  4. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 25.5%
  5. I Fund = 20.0%
  6. 20% in each = 17.2%
  7. TSPi Plus = 15.2%
  8. TSPi Apex = 14.2%
  9. F Fund = 4.3%
  10. G Fund = 4.8%

* November 2015 is the start of TSPinvestor.

TSPinvestor Basic February 2018 Allocations

The TSPinvestor Basic allocations for February 2018 are: 26% G Fund, 25% F Fund, 15% C Fund, 34% S Fund, and 0% I Fund.

These should be allocated prior to February 1, 2018 at noon EST, or as soon as possible.  The Plus and Apex allocations will be released on February 8, 2017.

To implement this allocation, login to your account and change the fund allocations (via interfund transfer) and your new contributions to the recommended percentage.  These take effect the same business day if done before noon Eastern Time, otherwise it will be the next day.

The TSPinvestor Basic is a nominal 12% annual return strategy, and is less volatile than the Plus and Apex.

Last month’s TSPi Basic performance was a gain of 3.7%.

Monthly returns for January 2018:

  1. C Fund = 5.7%
  2. I Fund = 5.0%
  3. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 4.7%
  4. 50% C & S = 4.5%
  5. TSPinvestor Basic = 3.7%
  6. S Fund = 3.3%
  7. 20% in each fund = 2.6%
  8. G Fund = 0.2%
  9. F Fund = (1.1)%

() – denotes negative returns

In evaluating the performance on a month-to-month basis it is important to consider they vary widely. It is better to evaluate the returns over the course of a year or two, or ten.

Cumulative Returns Since Nov 2015

  1. C Fund = 40.8%
  2. 50% in C & S = 38.8%
  3. S fund = 36.6%
  4. 1/3 in each C, S & I = 36.0%
  5. I Fund = 29.6%
  6. 20% in each fund = 23.1%
  7. TSPi Basic = 18.5%
  8. F Fund =5.2%
  9. G Fund = 4.8%

TSPinvestor Plus and Apex Allocations for January 2018

The TSPinvestor Plus and Apex allocations for January 2018 are:

Plus: 42% G Fund, 44% F Fund, 7% C Fund, 0% S Fund, 7% I Fund

Apex: Same as Plus.

These should be allocated prior to January 9, 2018 at noon EST.

To implement this allocation, login to your account and change the fund allocations (via interfund transfer) and your new contributions to the recommended percentage.  These take effect the same business day if done before noon Eastern Time, otherwise it will be the next day.

The TSPinvestor Apex is a nominal 23% annual return strategy, and the Plus is a nominal 19% annual return.

Last month’s Plus and Apex performance – each had gains of 1.5%.

Here is a comparison of the various allocations and funds performance for December 2017:

  1. I Fund = 4.8%
  2. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 3.9%
  3. C Fund = 3.7%
  4. 50% C & S = 3.5%
  5. S Fund = 3.2%
  6. 20% in each fund = 2.3%
  7. TSPinvestor Apex = 1.5%
  8. TSPinvestor Plus = 1.5%
  9. G Fund = 0.2%
  10. F Fund = (0.1)%

() – denotes negative return (or a loss)

NOTE: These are like comparisons based upon allocations on the 9th of the month.

Cumulative Returns since Nov 2015*:

  1. C Fund = 36.9%
  2. 50% in C & S = 36.0%
  3. S Fund = 34.8%
  4. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 33.0%
  5. I Fund = 26.3%
  6. 20% in each = 21.6%
  7. TSPi Plus = 16.8%
  8. TSPi Apex = 15.8%
  9. F Fund = 6.1%
  10. G Fund = 4.6%

* November 2015 is the start of TSPinvestor.

TSPinvestor Basic January 2018 Allocations

The TSPinvestor Basic allocations for January 2018 are: 5% G Fund, 11% F Fund, 28% C Fund, 32% S Fund, and 24% I Fund.

These should be allocated prior to January 2, 2018 at noon EST, or as soon as possible.  The Plus and Apex allocations will be released on January 7, 2017.

To implement this allocation, login to your account and change the fund allocations (via interfund transfer) and your new contributions to the recommended percentage.  These take effect the same business day if done before noon Eastern Time, otherwise it will be the next day.

The TSPinvestor Basic is a nominal 12% annual return strategy, and is less volatile than the Plus and Apex.

Last month’s TSPi Basic performance was a gain of 0.8%.

Monthly returns for December 2017:

  1. I Fund = 1.6%
  2. C Fund =1.1%
  3. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 1.1%
  4. 50% C & S = 0.8%
  5. TSPinvestor Basic = 0.8%
  6. 20% in each fund = 0.8%
  7. S Fund = 0.5%
  8. F Fund = 0.5%
  9. G Fund = 0.2%

() – denotes negative returns

In evaluating the performance on a month-to-month basis it is important to consider they vary widely. It is better to evaluate the returns over the course of a year or two, or ten.

Cumulative Returns Since Nov 2015

  1. C Fund = 33.2%
  2. 50% in C & S = 32.8%
  3. S fund = 32.2%
  4. 1/3 in each C, S & I = 29.9%
  5. I Fund = 23.4%
  6. 20% in each fund = 20.0%
  7. TSPi Basic = 14.2%
  8. F Fund =6.4%
  9. G Fund = 4.6%

TSPinvestor Plus and Apex Allocations for December 2017

The TSPinvestor Plus and Apex allocations for December 2017 are:

Plus: 27% G Fund, 30% F Fund, 21% C Fund, 22% S Fund, 0% I Fund

Apex: Same as Plus.

These should be allocated prior to December 11, 2017 at noon EST.

To implement this allocation, login to your account and change the fund allocations (via interfund transfer) and your new contributions to the recommended percentage.  These take effect the same business day if done before noon Eastern Time, otherwise it will be the next day.

The TSPinvestor Apex is a nominal 23% annual return strategy, and the Plus is a nominal 19% annual return.

Last month’s Plus and Apex performance had gains of 2.5% and 3.3%, respectively.

Here is a comparison of the various allocations and funds performance for November 2017:

  1. S Fund = 3.3%
  2. TSPinvestor Apex = 3.3%
  3. 50% C & S = 3.0%
  4. C Fund = 2.8%
  5. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 2.1%
  6. TSPinvestor Plus = 2.1%
  7. 20% in each fund = 1.3%
  8. I Fund = 0.3%
  9. G Fund = 0.2%
  10. F Fund = 0.1%

() – denotes negative return (or a loss)

NOTE: These are like comparisons based upon allocations on the 9th of the month.

Cumulative Returns since Nov 2015*:

  1. C Fund = 31.9%
  2. 50% in C & S = 31.4%
  3. S Fund = 30.7%
  4. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 28.0%
  5. I Fund = 20.6%
  6. 20% in each = 18.9%
  7. TSPi Plus = 15.1%
  8. TSPi Apex = 14.1%
  9. F Fund = 6.2%
  10. G Fund = 4.4%

* November 2015 is the start of TSPinvestor.

TSPinvestor Basic December 2017 Allocations

The TSPinvestor Basic allocations for December 2017 are: 8% G Fund, 13% F Fund, 25% C Fund, 40% S Fund, and 14% I Fund.

These should be allocated prior to December 1, 2017 at noon EST, or as soon as possible.  The Plus and Apex allocations will be released on December 8, 2017.

To implement this allocation, login to your account and change the fund allocations (via interfund transfer) and your new contributions to the recommended percentage.  These take effect the same business day if done before noon Eastern Time, otherwise it will be the next day.

The TSPinvestor Basic is a nominal 12% annual return strategy, and is less volatile than the Plus and Apex.

Last month’s TSPi Basic performance was a gain of 2.1%.

Monthly returns for October 2017:

  1. C Fund =3.1%
  2. 50% C & S = 3.0%
  3. S Fund = 2.9%
  4. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 2.4%
  5. TSPinvestor Basic = 2.1%
  6. 20% in each fund = 1.4%
  7. I Fund = 1.1%
  8. G Fund = 0.2%
  9. F Fund = (0.1)%

() – denotes negative returns

In evaluating the performance on a month-to-month basis it is important to consider they vary widely. It is better to evaluate the returns over the course of a year or two, or ten.

Cumulative Returns Since Nov 2015

  1. 50% in C & S = 31.7%
  2. C Fund = 31.7%
  3. S fund = 31.6%
  4. 1/3 in each C, S & I = 28.5%
  5. 20% in each fund = 21.4%
  6. I Fund = 20.2%
  7. TSPi Basic = 13.4%
  8. F Fund =5.9%
  9. G Fund = 4.3%

TSPinvestor Plus and Apex Allocations for November 2017

The TSPinvestor Plus and Apex allocations for November 2017 are:

Plus: 2% G Fund, 4% F Fund, 36% C Fund, 45% S Fund, 13% I Fund

Apex: 100% S Fund.

These should be allocated prior to November 9, 2017 at noon EST.

To implement this allocation, login to your account and change the fund allocations (via interfund transfer) and your new contributions to the recommended percentage.  These take effect the same business day if done before noon Eastern Time, otherwise it will be the next day.

The TSPinvestor Apex is a nominal 23% annual return strategy, and the Plus is a nominal 19% annual return.

Last month’s Plus and Apex performance had gains of 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.

Here is a comparison of the various allocations and funds performance for October 2017:

  1. I Fund = 2.1%
  2. C Fund = 1.9%
  3. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 1.2%
  4. 20% in each fund = 0.8%
  5. 50% C & S = 0.7%
  6. TSPinvestor Plus = 0.6%
  7. F Fund = 0.5%
  8. TSPinvestor Apex = 0.3%
  9. G Fund = 0.2%
  10. S Fund = (0.5)%

() – denotes negative return (or a loss)

NOTE: These are like comparisons based upon allocations on the 9th of the month.

Cumulative Returns since Nov 2015*:

  1. C Fund = 28.8%
  2. 50% in C & S = 28.1%
  3. S Fund = 27.2%
  4. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 25.9%
  5. I Fund = 20.8%
  6. 20% in each = 17.6%
  7. TSPi Plus = 12.4%
  8. TSPi Apex = 10.6%
  9. F Fund = 6.2%
  10. G Fund = 4.2%

* November 2015 is the start of TSPinvestor.