This started with the question, “Can I make more money on my Thrift Savings Plan?”
The answer is yes – emphatically. The first attempt yielded a 10-year, 2005-2014 annual rate of 12% and the second attempt yielded 18%.
Maybe a little history is needed – I have been a federal employee for 30+ years and been contributing to TSP for about that long. My long term strategy has been to invest in stocks to maximize returns. In the days before the S and I fund, I had 70 in C fund and the rest in F and G. After S and I came into existence I had 80% in the C, S and I. This worked well through the years and the only adjustment was to re-allocate every year or so to keep the percentages in each fund matching what I intended.
I am an engineer by trade – logical and broadly educated to solve real world problems. So I used my dusty engineering/mathematical tools to tackle the answer to my question. I applied regression analysis to the previous G, F, C, S and I funds and adjusted the model/formulas to best predict next month’s fund value. I used some judgement to get the formula (the Basic). I eventually tried to improve it by adding economic factors (the Plus).
I will explain my methodology, testing and results with all too much detail in another article.
But, to be clear, the monthly allocation recommendations (the Basic and Plus) are all mathematical. There is no part that relies on my judgement for the month-to-month allocations.
So, I will be posting TSP allocation recommendations to memorialize it as I prove, or disprove my allocation formulas.
There will be two recommendations TSPinvestor Basic, and TSPinvestor Plus. The TSPinvestor Basic is a nominal 12% return that relies on historical fund data. It will be released no later than the first of the month. The TSPinvestor Plus is a nominal 18% return that relies on historical fund and economic data and will be released after around the 9th of the month.