TSPinvestor Plus and Apex Allocations for February 2017

The TSPinvestor Plus and Apex allocations for February 2017 are:

Plus: 3% G Fund, 15% F Fund, 33% C Fund, 41% S Fund, 8% I Fund

Apex: Same as Plus.

These should be allocated prior to February 9, 2017 at noon EST.

To implement this allocation, login to your account and change the fund allocations (via interfund transfer) and your new contributions to the recommended percentage.  These take effect the same business day if done before noon Eastern Time, otherwise it will be the next day.

The TSPinvestor Apex is a nominal 23% annual return strategy, and the Plus is a nominal 19% annual return.

Last month’s Plus and Apex performance each held with gains of 0.72%.

Here is a comparison of the various allocations and funds performance for January 2017:

  1. I Fund = 1.8%
  2. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 1.4%
  3. S Fund = 1.4%
  4. C Fund = 1.3%
  5. 50% C & S = 1.3%
  6. 20% in each fund = 1.2%
  7. TSPinvestor Plus = 0.7%
  8. TSPinvestor Apex = 0.7%
  9. F Fund = 0.4%
  10. G Fund = 0.2%

() – denotes negative return (or a loss)

NOTE: These are like comparisons based upon allocations on the 9th of the month.

Cumulative Returns since Nov 2015*:

  1. S Fund = 14.6%
  2. 50% in C &S = 13.5%
  3. C Fund = 12.2%
  4. 1/3 each in C, S & I = 10.2%
  5. 20% in each = 8.3%
  6. F Fund = 3.3%
  7. G Fund = 2.4%
  8. I Fund = 1.6%
  9. TSPi Plus = 1.2%
  10. TSPi Apex = (0.5)%

* November 2015 is the start of TSPinvestor.

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10 thoughts on “TSPinvestor Plus and Apex Allocations for February 2017

  1. How did you calculate the 23.3% Apex returns? Since you started the newsletter in Nov 2015, the Apex has been the worst performer. Any insight into why this is happening?

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    • The calculations were done prior to me starting this website. The formula for the Apex was run on the previous 12 years of data and the 23.3% was annual return rate.

      You are absolutely correct in being concerned that its return in the last year or so is not good – I am too. But like all long term strategies, there are lean years and there are great years. My old standard semi-risky strategy of the 50CS, which I maintained for 12 years, only returned 8% annually .. but I was very happy at its results over the long run. Look at what it did in 2008-09 — absolutely terrible (losses of greater than 35%) — as did all stock-based funds during that time. I had a number of co-workers who bailed out on the stocks about the time that it hit bottom, only to lose out when it rebounded by 40% soon after. The simulated Apex bailed out early when the stocks were falling, and returned to the stocks on their way up.

      I certainly encourage you to use whatever tools you have, including TSPinvestor, to make your own investment decisions and strategy. Because the bottom line is only you have to live with those decisions.

      Cheers, Jeff

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      • Jeff,

        Thanks for the feedback! The Apex model seems like a winner in theory. When you backtested the Apex strategy, was it a double blind backtest, meaning that there was no cherry-picking in the process to enhance returns? What’s more, is the 23.3 percent compounded or arithmetic returns? I have been warned that certain websites, in an effort to gain membership or followers, use inflated returns–that when used with real money, does not come close to duplicating them.

        I have been a buy-and-hold investor in the C,S, and I funds since inception and have done quite well. However, I am amenable to a more dynamic strategy, such as Apex, to minimize risk and losses. After all, we are in the late innings of the bull market. In my opinion, buy-and-hold could be a dangerous proposition during the next 5 years or more.

        Ciao,
        Ryan

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      • The data set was a continuous set from January 2004 to July 2015. The return is an annual compound rate. Your CSI strategy is likely very good long term. And I certainly recommend that for someone that wants a lower risk; lower maintenance ; and longer term strategy. I certainly did this for years without any thought of deviation.

        You very well could be right on the short term future. I do wish I could predict the future; that’s the ultimate money winner.

        Jeff

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      • Jeff,

        Why did you choose 9% as the threshold to decide to go 100% for a particular fund (Apex model)?

        Further, when you assign percentages to funds within the basic, plus and apex strategies, is that an objective (mathematical model) or subjective (personal opinion on what they should be) decision or both?

        -Ryan

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      • All fund allocations are objective. The only exception is when it spits out (my spreadsheet) total allocations that don’t equal 100% (usually 99%). In that case I assign 1% more to one of the funds (usually the largest, unless it trips an Apex change).

        The 9% threshold was calculated to maximize the returns. I ran every possible value of that percentage to figure which one made the largest total return over the entire data set.

        I originally did not have an Apex fund. But after looking at the Plus fund and trying to figure out how to improve it, the thought that prompted the creation was, “If I only knew which TSP fund was going to ‘win’ the monthly return contest, for then I’d invest 100% allocation into it.” Aha, yup .. let’s take that allocation recommendation and bet that the highest Plus-recommended TSP fund was going to be the winner. And alas, the Apex was created.

        Like

  2. Jeff,

    Thanks again for your timely insight. So glad to hear that it is completely “mechanical” (mathematical model). I plan to implement the March Apex allocations when they become available.

    Do you ever release mid-month allocation changes when it is prudent to do so? I have observed that some TSP trading sites recommend IFTs 1-3 times per month.

    Ciao,
    Ryan

    Like

    • You’re welcome. Glad to hear you’re going to try it. Hopefully it works out well.

      I don’t do inter-month allocation changes, nor do I recommend them here. But certainly you can try them, based upon other sites’ recommendations. I believe you are allotted two unrestricted IFTs per month .. and then and third which allows transfers only to G Fund.

      Jeff

      Like

      • What technical analysis tools/factors do you give the most credence to in support of the monthly fund allocations?

        Like

      • that’s a good question Ryan … what can make us money? In the Plus calculations leading economic indicators are utilized. And the recent TSP return certainly matter.

        Like

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