TSPinvestor performance compared to other options

In looking at options for getting best investment of your money in the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP), a comparison of returns of various lengths of time is very useful; and a look at how volatile, or unpredictable, a fund/strategy is compared to each other, is useful,as well.

There are fixed allocation (buy and hold) investment options, or ones such as the TSPinvestor where the allocations are changed frequently.  Either way, the information is powerful to deciding your strategy.

Below you’ll find various options and their returns.

10-Year Annual (2005-2014)

  1. TSPinvestor Apex = 23.3%
  2. TSPinvestor Plus = 19.3%
  3. TSP Millionaire = 17.9%
  4. TSPinvestor Basic = 12.1%
  5. S Fund only = 9.4%
  6. TSP Pilot Aggressive = 9.0%
  7. 50% C & S = 8.9%
  8. TSP Folio = 8.6%
  9. C Fund only = 7.7%
  10. 33.3% in C, S & I = 7.4%
  11. 20% in each = 6.4%
  12. F Fund only = 4.9%
  13. I Fund only = 4.6%
  14. G Fund only = 3.2%

5-Year Annual (2010-2014)

  1. TSPinvestor Apex = 18.8%
  2. TSP Millionaire = 17.4%
  3. S Fund only = 17.1%
  4. TSPinvestor Plus = 16.3%
  5. 50% C & S = 16.3%
  6. C Fund only = 15.5%
  7. 33.3% in C, S & I = 12.7%
  8. TSP Pilot Aggressive = 11.1%
  9. TSPinvestor Basic = 9.4%
  10. 20% in each = 9.0%
  11. TSP Folio = 8.9%
  12. I Fund only = 5.5%
  13. F Fund only = 4.7%
  14. G Fund only = 2.2%

3-Year Annual (2012-2014)

  1. S Fund only = 20.9%
  2. 50% C & S = 20.7%
  3. C Fund only = 20.4%
  4. 33.3% in C, S & I = 17.5%
  5. TSPinvestor Apex = 13.4%
  6. TSP Millionaire = 13.3%
  7. TSPinvestor Plus = 12.5%
  8. TSP Pilot Aggressive = 11.8%
  9. 20% in each = 11.4%
  10. I Fund only = 11.1%
  11. TSP Folio = 10.2%
  12. TSPinvestor Basic = 9.4%
  13. F Fund only = 3.1%
  14. G Fund only = 1.9%

1-Year Annual (2014)

  1. C Fund only = 14.6%
  2. 50% C & S = 11.7%
  3. TSPinvestor Apex = 10.7%
  4. TSPinvestor Plus = 9.9%
  5. TSP Folio = 8.8%
  6. S Fund only = 7.7%
  7. F Fund only = 7.3%
  8. TSP Pilot Aggressive = 6.0%
  9. TSPinvestor Basic = 5.7%
  10. 33.3% in C, S & I = 5.3%
  11. 20% in each = 5.1%
  12. G Fund only = 2.3%
  13. TSP Millionaire = (0.4)%
  14. I Fund only = (6.2)%

Volatility – annualized (smaller is less risky)

  1. G Fund only = 0.3%
  2. F Fund only = 3.1%
  3. TSP Folio = 5.4%
  4. TSPinvestor Basic = 10.0%
  5. TSP Pilot Aggressive = 10.0%**
  6. 20% in each = 10.0%
  7. TSPinvestor Plus = 13.5%
  8. C Fund only = 14.5%
  9. TSP Millionaire = 14.5%**
  10. TSPinvestor Apex = 15.2%
  11. 50% C & S = 16.3%
  12. 33.3% in C, S & I = 16.3%
  13. S Fund only = 18.0%
  14. I Fund only = 18.4%

** estimated

Sharpe Ratio – using G Fund as baseline low risk investment. Higher number indicates more desirable fund to invest in.

  1. TSPinvestor Apex = 1.32
  2. TSPinvestor Plus = 1.19
  3. TSP Millionaire = 1.01
  4. TSP Folio = 1.00
  5. TSPinvestor Basic = 0.89
  6. TSP Pilot Aggressive = 0.58
  7. F Fund only = 0.55
  8. 50% C & S = 0.35
  9. S Fund only = 0.34
  10. 20% in each = 0.32
  11. C Fund only = 0.31
  12. 33.3% in C, S & I = 0.26
  13. I Fund only = 0.08
  14. G Fund only = 0.00 (base)

What does this mean?  After assessing all the options here, the best is either TSPinvestor Apex, or TSPinvestor Plus.  Each provide excellent returns and relatively low risk. The Sharpe Ratio shows each to be solidly above the other options.

But there is also some good evidence that the monthly allocation strategies are clearly above the buy and hold (or fixed) strategies.  The Sharpe Ratio for these are all above the other options by significant amounts.

TSPinvestor Apex is an aggressive fund which puts 100% in one of the funds if it appears to be a clear favorite. If the TSPinvestor Plus’ top allocation is at least 9% greater than the 2nd best, then TSPinvestor Apex puts 100% in that top allocation, otherwise it matches the TSPinvestor Plus.

TSPinvestor Plus is an aggressive fund which uses leading economic indicators, and historical TSP fund information to determine monthly allocations.

TSPinvestor Basic is an aggressive fund which uses historical TSP fund information to determine monthly allocations.

TSP Folio is a monthly allocation service offered by subscription (not affiliated with TSPinvestor).

TSP Millionaire is a monthly allocation service  offered by subscription (not affiliated with TSPinvestor).

TSP Pilot Aggressive is a monthly allocation service offered by subscription (not affiliated with TSPinvestor).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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